What speed do

This Friday, the MLB’s Most Surprising Team heads to Baltimore to take on the Orioles. You could argue that the Orioles are the MLB’s Most Surprising Team, but I could argue that you are an idiot. The reason being that the Orioles won their division by 12 games and were never really challenged by their division foes (Red Sox, really?), and were essentially the number 2 seed in the AL playoffs. The Royals, on the other hand, had an incredibly up and down season that spanned first place to fourth place, then made the playoffs for the first time in 29 years, and won the craziest Wild Card game in the history of sports. They are not supposed to be here but they are. Most Surprising Team.

All of 2014 has been a crazy ride, but I have decided to write a post about this Royals-coaster season  another time. Today I just wanted to take a look at what the Royals speed can do and how it might affect their chances to beat the Orioles. Chances are, you have heard the Royals’ Jarrod Dyson’s famous “that’s what speed do” phrase, which he uttered after showcasing his speed to score the winning run in a walkoff victory in 2012. Speed has been very important to these Royals and below is why:

First and foremost, it has been well-reported that the Royals are prominent base thieves, stealing 153 bases over the regular season, which is 15 more than the second place Dodgers, who are now out of the playoffs. They were led by Jarrod Dyson, who had 36 stolen bases, followed by Alcides Escobar (31) and Lorenzo Cain (28). Nori Aoki (17) and Alex Gordon (12) round out the Royals who finished with double digit steals. Dyson is tied for sixth in the league, well behind the Dodgers’ Dee Gordon and his 64 stolen bases. However, Dee Gordon stole 46% of his team’s bases this season, whereas the Royals shared the load as a team. Dyson spoke about how this is a team game, and it has been amazing to watch the small ball tactics of the Royals come to fruition in this playoffs. How did the Royals’ players get so fast? Well below are untouched photos of Jarrod Dyson and Terrance Gore training in the offseason:

Jarrod Dyson clearly beating an antelope in a race to second base (March, 2014)

Terrance Gore, outrunning a cheetah during a workout in Southwest Africa in late February, 2014

Second, the Royals have an incredible 12 stolen bases this postseason (an average of 3 per game), with a 92% success on those stolen bases (thanks Derek Norris!). Of the remaining postseason teams, Baltimore and San Francisco have 2 each, and the Cardinals have zero (ha!). Oddly, Alex Gordon and Terrance Gore are tied for first in the MLB postseason with 3 stolen bases apiece.

Third, the Orioles’ catchers are Caleb Joseph and Nick Hundley. As a whole, the Orioles are great defensively, but with their star catcher Matt Wieters out, they have a conundrum for which backup to use. Joseph has not spent much time in the majors because his defense was poor in the minor leagues but he had a good season and threw out 40% of runners trying to steal this year (which would rank #1 in the MLB if he were qualified). He cannot hit very well though. Hundley has thrown out 19% of runners trying to steal, but he has more power than Joseph. The O’s have been using Hundley in the postseason so far, which might be good news for the Royals, unless their manager Buck Showalter opts for Joseph in the AL Championship series. 

Overall, my impression is that since both the Orioles and Royals rely on tight pitching and solid defense, the Royals will likely need to use their speed on the base paths and hope that the Orioles need to use Nick Hundley for his better batting skills. If the Royals success on the base paths continues (they also have the second most bases on balls and have the most sacrifice flies this postseason - both reasons to steal bases frequently), then the Orioles might find themselves out of the playoffs. Cuz that's what speed do....

Lets Go Royals!