The WAR of the Royals

I recently obtained several 2016 Royals baseball cards and while examining them (below), I noticed something interesting. Several of the players stats had changed between 2014 and 2015, including the Wins Against Replacement, or WAR. This statistic represents the average number of wins a player is worth as compared to a replacement level player. This is a way to assess a player’s value and determine how much a team might lose if that player was injured. A higher WAR value means that a player is worth more than a player with a lower WAR. A value of 0 represents an average player.

I was interested in examining the changes in WAR and how they corresponded to the Royals’ two World Series appearances, particularly for the core players on the team. The Royals have had many of the same players since 2011-12, which would enable a sizable group for comparing over the years. So I went through each player’s WAR between 2013 and 2015 to see what changes might have occurred as the team rose into postseason prominence. I also examined each players' career high WAR so we can see what their ceiling as an MLB player is so far. A quick disclaimer: I did not examine rental or short-term players, such as Nori Aoki, Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto, simply because their time in KC was so short, and because they did not have much effect on helping the Royals make both World Series. Below is a table of the WAR levels for the main Royals between 2013-15:

Player	2013 WAR	2014 WAR	2015 WAR	Career high WAR
Alcides Escobar	0.3	2.5	0.6	3.4
Alex Gordon	4.2	6.6	2.8	7.2
Lorenzo Cain	3.2	5.1	7.2	7.2
Eric Hosmer	3.5	0.8	3.6	3.6
Mike Moustakas	-0.1	0.4	4.4	4.4
Omar Infante	2.5	0.8	-0.8	3.1
Jarrod Dyson	1.8	2.8	2.2	2.8
Christian Colon	---	0.7	0.6	0.7
Salvador Perez	4.1	3.4	2.2	4.1
Luke Hochevar	2.0	---	0.3	2.0
Jeremy Guthrie	1.1	1.1	-1.8	4.8
Kelvin Herrera	-0.2	2.8	1.4	2.8
Wade Davis	-2.1	3.7	3.4	3.7
Greg Holland	3.1	2.5	0.2	3.1
Danny Duffy	0.9	3.6	1.5	3.6
Yordano Ventura	0.2	3.2	1.9	3.2
TOTAL	24.5	40.0	29.7
# above 2.0 WAR	7	10	7

Based on the table, the 2014 Royals had 5 players who set career highs (highlighted in yellow) in WAR (no one set their career high in 2013), and overall, the core of the team was worth 40 more wins than if the Royals had trotted out replacement level players, which was their norm from the years 1986 until 2013. You will notice that 10 players had WAR values above 2.0, which typically represents the benchmark for being considered a good player. 

In 2015, the Royals were buoyed by 3 players having career highs in WAR, but overall only had 7 of their core players who had WAR values above 2.0. Interestingly, the overall difference in WAR between 2013 and 2015 was only 5.2 wins. It is pretty clear that the Royals making the World Series in 2015 was as a result of career years from Cain/Hosmer and Moose, coupled with the additions of Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist (as well as great years from Edinson Volquez and Kendrys Morales). Those 5.2 wins can easily be the difference between winning the division and not even making the Wild Card round, so it would definitely seem that GM Dayton Moore’s gamble on Volquez, Morales, Cueto and Zobrist was well worth it. 

My take from this analysis is in general, the Royals rise to two consecutive World Series was a result of their core group finally reaching their peak, coupled with solid years from their free agent signings. Teams like the Cleveland Indians are trying to replicate this success by maintaining their core group while teams like the Detroit Tigers and LA Angels simply try to buy the best players. Considering that the NY Mets made the 2015 World Series with their young core group, it appears that buying free agents is not necessarily the best way to go in baseball, and could be a reason why Alex Gordon decided to stay in Kansas City where he could remain with his core group and hope that 2016 gives players like Jarrod Dyson, Paulo Orlando, Sal Perez and maybe even Alcides Escobar a chance to get their career highs in WAR. Obviously there is much more to baseball than WAR, which is complicated to calculate, but it was interesting to examine this stat a little more in depth.  

By the way, the 2016 Royals cards are pretty sharp, AND they include highlight cards from the World Series. Better get some for the memories!